The international energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase in demand for oil in the world by 2040 by 12.1% compared to last year — up to 106.3 million barrels per day, follows from the basic scenario of the annual forecast of the IEA World Energy Outlook, RIA Novosti reports.
Thus, the Agency improved its estimate by 1.4 million barrels per day compared to last year's forecast.
The IEA also improved its estimate of oil demand growth by 2025. The Agency believes that the figure will increase by this time by 8% — to 102.4 million barrels per day. This is 2.1 million barrels per day higher than last year's forecast.
"China and India account for almost half of the total increase in demand by 2040," the report notes. At the same time, the IEA points out that oil consumption in India has been revised downward relative to last year's forecast due to a higher than expected forecast of the use of electric vehicles.
An important driver of growth will be Africa, where demand growth will be second only to India. "By 2040, Africa will consume almost as much oil as the European Union, although oil consumption per capita will still be 75% lower than the European one. The growth in Africa is due to the increase in passenger road transport … the number of cars on the roads in Africa will more than double in the period from 2017 to 2040," the IEA explained.
According to his expectations, the main demand for oil in the long term will be provided by the use of cars (21%), transportation of goods (18%), aviation and navigation (15%) and petrochemicals (15%). At the same time, the expected growth of the world fleet by 2040 by 80% will not lead to a significant increase in demand for oil. The IEA explains this by improving fuel efficiency (saving about 9 million barrels per day), as well as by increasing the use of alternative fuels (electricity, biofuels and natural gas will save another 7.5 million barrels per day).
As for the supply of oil in the market, the IEA forecasts it approximately at the level of demand in the medium and long term. At the same time, until 2025, the main source of supply growth will be countries outside OPEC, which will produce a total of 59.8 million barrels of oil per day, occupying 60% of the market, while OPEC production will amount to 40.1 million barrels per day (40% of the market against the current 43%). However, then, according to the IEA forecast, the share of OPEC will recover and even grow — to 45% by 2040.